Don’t learn to code: Is the future here this time?
Comparing the advent of AI with other supposed world changers
“Don’t learn to code”.
This is what Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia seemed to suggest recently at the World Government Summit in Dubai last month. He expanded on his recommendation saying that “it is our job to create computing technology such that nobody has to program,” and that folks with domain expertise in a specific field such as digital biology, education, manufacturing, or farming, are now empowered to be programmers themselves.
This is a common sentiment I’ve been hearing recently: AI is getting so good at coding that it will replace many software engineering job functions as we know them today. For example, the demo of Devin, the first AI software engineer, by Cognition Labs, blew up across the media, with conflicting views on whether it will replace software engineering jobs. According to the technical report published by Cognition Labs, it is measurably closer to accomplishing a software engineer’s job: “In SWE-bench, Devin successfully resolves 13.86% of issues, far exceeding the previous highest unassisted baseline of 1.96% [and “assisted” rate of] 4.80% of issues.” Students are understandably getting nervous as well; I’ve seen many discussion threads, such as on Reddit (example1, example2), inquiring about whether it’s still worth it to pursue a computer science course of study.
Hype or here?
AI is expected to be an incredible disruptor, often likened to the transformative impact of steam power and the internet before it. Time declared the AI revolution will reshape the world. Forbes warns that generative AI will change all of our jobs. Hacker News claims that LLMs are the biggest thing since the World-Wide Web. Consumers, businesses, investors, employees — everyone across industries is predicting how this new technology will change our norms, not just in 5 or 10 years, but today.
Something feels different about this one to me than previous technology “revolutions”. The technology breakthroughs aren’t coming; they have arrived, and the world is expected to change tomorrow. For example, Sequoia Capital recently published a generative AI report that emphasizes the incredible speed for generative AI startups to generate >$1B of revenue in just a matter of months; whereas the same milestone for the SaaS market took years.
Let’s take a walk through the past at other potential disruptors and where they are today.
Self driving cars
Self driving cars seemed like a similar sentiment. Back in 2020, rideshare companies like Uber were banking on self-driving car technology as the path to eventual profitability. However even then, I didn’t hear anyone say “Don’t learn to drive.” Today though, it doesn’t seem that the technology has yet reached the vision — for example, the Guardian reported at the end of last year that the “hype far outpaced the technological advances.” The self-driving car startup Cruise was recently banned from San Francisco. Bloomberg even warned AI developers to adopt Waymo’s cautious approach before developing AI at breakneck speed.
Conclusion: Mostly Hype.
The technology advances in this space are just coming more slowly than folks originally predicted, which is arguably the more responsible path. Although I do have to admit, I recently took a Waymo in San Francisco, and the experience was delightful. So this era isn’t over, but I think it will be awhile before the benefits or changes in norms are felt in everyday life.
Crypto
Back in 2021, financial execs were predicting that cryptocurrencies could replace fiat currency in as little as 5 years, and in 2022, Deloitte reported that three-quarters of US merchants planned to accept cryptocurrencies by 2024. But the intervening years have seen the bubble burst, as well as many spectacular falls from grace of high profile crypto leaders, like FTX and Luna. Since then the US Congress is more hostile to the industry after these prominent failures.
Conclusion: Mostly Hype.
Crypto certainly isn’t gone; the number of in-person businesses accepting Bitcoin nearly tripled in 2023, which hit its all time high peak value this year. Some folks think of crypto models as a form of gambling. But, I wouldn’t get rid of your credit card anytime soon.
Mobile
When Motorola introduced its first mobile phone in 1984, even the best marketers probably couldn’t have predicted the success of mobile phones. About 97% of Americans own a smartphone. The mobile revolution didn’t just change the course of communication throughout the world. It has changed how we shop, how we date, led to the advent of social media, and so much more.
Conclusion: Here, and here to stay
Do you think AI will live up to the hype? Will we all end up with AI agents as our personal assistants at home and at work? Or is the excitement of cutting edge technologists leaking into mainstream media, and we will land somewhere in the middle? Engineers — should we be worried about our jobs?
